The dwindling of Japan's population of children has been the subject of national concern for some time because of its serious economic and social implications. After trending downward for more than 20 years, however, the number of births recorded in Japan in 1994 increased nearly 50,000 over the previous year, according to a Ministry of Health and Welfare study. Reflecting this phenomenon, the total fertility rate (the average number of children born to women during their childbearing years) rose for the first time in a decade, from 1.46 in 1993 to 1.50 in 1994. On the other hand, the number of marriages, which had increased for six consecutive years, registered a slight downturn in 1994, and the number of couples revoking their nuptial vows hit an all-time high.
Births
Japan recorded its first postwar baby boom from 1947 to 1949; during this period, 2.7 million babies were born annually. The second took place from 1971 to 1973, when the first generation of baby boomers reached marriageable age and had children of their own, at a clip of more than 2 million per year. The number of births subsequently declined each year through 1993, when it fell to only 1,188,282. Last year, however, this figure jumped to 1,238,247.
The upturn has been attributed in large part to the fact that the number of couples getting married in Japan increased for six consecutive years, from 1988 through 1993. Breaking down last year's birth statistics by age group reveals that whereas mothers in their teens gave birth to slightly fewer children, mothers in all other age groups had more babies; notably, mothers in their early thirties gave birth to 377,375 children, up 20,288 over 1993. The Health Ministry explains that increasing numbers of women who continue working after marriage and of women in the latter part of their childbearing years are choosing to give birth as conditions in the workplace are gradually changing to make it easier to raise children while holding down a job.
The total fertility rate is, however, still far below the population replacement level of 2.08.
Marriages and Divorces
The number of Japanese couples tying the knot in 1994 decreased 9,923 to 782,735. The trend toward later marriages, which first became evident in 1972, was again apparent for both genders in 1994: The average age of marriage was 29.8 for men (28.5 for first-time grooms) and 27.2 for women (26.2 for first-time brides).
On the other hand, the number of divorces rose 6,818 over the previous year to a record 195,115, breaking the 190,000 mark for the first time. Recently married couples constituted the largest proportion of those renouncing their nuptial vows: Approximately 75,000 of the couples who filed for divorce (40%) had been married less than five years. But the proportion of couples who divorced after more than 20 years of marriage rose to one in six, surpassing 30,000. The percentage increase in divorces over the previous year was largest among couples who had been together 30 to 35 years: Some 3,400 of them parted ways, a rise of 11.7% over 1993.
One social commentator closely following women's issues speculates that rising life expectancy is behind the increase in divorces among older couples. Given the prospect of living longer, more and more women are viewing their elderly years as a chance to start anew and are deciding to live as they please. She predicts that this trend will become more pronounced in the future.
Deaths
The number of deaths recorded in 1994 was 875,905, down 2,627 from the previous year. This decline was attributed in part to the fact that there were no serious outbreaks of influenza.
The four principal causes of death in Japan have remained unchanged since 1985. The leading culprit, cancer, was responsible for 27.8% of deaths in 1994. The cancer-induced death rate (the number of deaths per 100,000 population) rose over the previous year to 196.3. On the other hand, the number-two killer, heart disease, claimed 20,000 fewer victims than in 1993, and the associated death rate fell 17.1 to 128.5. These statistics were affected considerably, however, by the fact that the Health Ministry, in preparation for a sweeping revision of the format of death certificates planned for this year, had requested that doctors no longer simply write "heart failure" when recording the cause of death. Ranking third among causes of death are strokes; the proportion of deaths attributed to strokes (13.7% in 1994) and the death rate (96.9) have remained stable since 1991. These three major disorders brought about more than 60% of all deaths every year from 1977 through 1993; last year, however, the proportion fell to 59.7%.
In contrast, the number of people who succumb to pneumonia and bronchitis, the fourth most frequent cause of death, has been on the rise since the late 1980s; the share of total deaths accounted for by these afflictions (10.3% in 1994) and the associated death rate (72.4) are approaching those registered by the three disorders noted above. The Health Ministry views this phenomenon as a representative of the graying of Japanese society: Although the elderly today enjoy longer lives, their bodily functions naturally become weaker as they grow older, leading to more cases of death due to complications from catching colds. Should this trend continue, the ministry predicts, it will become appropriate in the future to speak of Japan's four, rather than three, major health disorders.
1994 Trends in Population, Marriage, and Divorce
| Total | Average time between occurrences | |
|---|---|---|
| Births | 1,238,247 | 25 seconds |
| Deaths | 875,905 | 36 seconds |
| Population growth | 362,342 | n/a |
| Marriages | 782,735 | 40 seconds |
| Divorces | 195,115 | 2 minutes, 42 seconds |